This COIN Stock Forecast article was written by Miles Grauberd – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Highlights

• Coinbase achieved $273 billion in safeguarded assets as of Q3 2024, up from $114 billion YoY.
• Coinbase brought in $185 billion in quarterly trading volume, underscoring its role as a central hub in the cryptocurrency market.
• Coinbase obtained VASP registration in the U.K., allowing for further growth in that region. 

Overview

Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) is a premier cryptocurrency platform that powers the global crypto economy. Founded in 2012, the company has evolved into a trusted leader in digital asset trading and management. Its offerings include trading, staking, secure storage, global transfers, and cryptocurrency payment solutions. Coinbase has set the standard for user-friendly design, institutional-grade security, and regulatory compliance, making it a platform of choice for both retail and institutional clients.

Business Model and Services

Coinbase has positioned itself as a one-stop solution for cryptocurrency needs, catering to a diverse customer base:

1. Trading and Investing: Seamlessly buying, selling, and trading over 250 cryptocurrencies.
2. Staking and Rewards: Enabling users to earn rewards through participation in network staking.
3. Institutional Solutions: Offering services like Coinbase Prime for secure custody, trade execution, and analytics tailored to institutional investors.
4. Global Payments: Supporting fast, low-cost international transfers leveraging blockchain technology.
5. Developer APIs: Empowering developers to integrate blockchain functionality into their apps and services.
6. Merchant Solutions: Allowing businesses to accept crypto payments, expanding their market reach.
7. Educational Initiatives: Fostering crypto adoption through programs like “Learn & Earn.”

Strategic Comparison with Peers

Coinbase vs. Robinhood:

• Coinbase offers access to 250+ cryptocurrencies in over 100 countries, compared to Robinhood’s limited selection of 15 cryptocurrencies, available only in the U.S.
• Coinbase has $273 billion in safeguarding assets, a 139.37% YOY increase from $114 billion   
• Robinhood has $19.5 billion Crypto safeguarded assets, a 39.29% YOY increase from $14 billion.
• Coinbase provides a secure, encrypted digital wallet and insurance protection, whereas Robinhood lacks wallet services.

Coinbase’s substantial $273 billion in safeguarded assets, reflecting a 139.37% year-over-year increase, highlights its financial dominance compared to Robinhood’s $19.5 billion, which grew at a slower 39.29% YoY rate. Its broad cryptocurrency offerings and secure, insured wallet services further solidify its competitive edge in the global crypto market. As Coinbase continues to expand its financial footprint and strengthen its security infrastructure, it remains the preferred choice for investors seeking a robust and reliable cryptocurrency platform in the U.S.

Coinbase vs. Binance:

Binance’s global market share has plummeted from 62.26% in December 2022 to 34.7%, reflecting a sharp decline in dominance. Regulatory scrutiny and ongoing investigations have significantly impacted its operations, making it nearly unusable in the U.S. market. This downward trend raises concerns about Binance’s long-term stability as competitors continue to gain ground.

Coinbase holds a 6.5% global market share, with its U.S. dominance declining from over 50% to around 40%. The rise of smaller exchanges offering a wider variety of cryptocurrencies poses a growing competitive threat. This shift raises concerns about Coinbase’s ability to maintain its market leadership amid increasing fragmentation in the crypto space.

Coinbase vs. Kraken:

Kraken supports 330+ cryptocurrencies, surpassing Coinbase’s 250+, yet Coinbase’s user-friendly interface and robust ecosystem make it more appealing to mainstream investors. Kraken has expanded its U.S. market share to 16.4%, with steady growth since August, but holds a smaller 1.6% global market share. While Kraken’s global presence and feature set remain competitive, Coinbase’s regulatory compliance and institutional trust provide a crucial advantage in sustaining long-term market leadership.

Over the past year, Coinbase has maintained a stable global market share of approximately 6.5%. In contrast, Binance’s market share has declined significantly, dropping from 62.26% in December 2022 to 34.7% in December 2024. However, Coinbase faces increasing competition from smaller exchanges that offer a wide array of cryptocurrencies, including meme coins, which are attracting users and eroding Coinbase’s market share.

Coinbase Around The World

Coinbase has established itself as a dominant force in the U.S. cryptocurrency market, commanding approximately 40% of the domestic market share. However, its global footprint is comparatively modest, with only about 6.5% of the worldwide crypto exchange market share. This contrast highlights the company’s significant potential for international expansion.

Recognizing this opportunity, Coinbase has embarked on a comprehensive global growth strategy. The company is actively working to establish regulated entities and local operations in high-bar regulatory jurisdictions abroad, aiming to safely facilitate trading solutions and provide products tailored to the crypto community’s demands. This approach underscores Coinbase’s commitment to compliance and customer protection on an international scale.

In 2023, Coinbase made significant strides in its ‘Go Broad, Go Deep’ expansion strategy, strengthening its foundations in existing markets and entering new ones. The company obtained licenses and registrations in Spain, France, Singapore, and Bermuda, and launched operations in Canada and Brazil with local fiat on and off ramps. These efforts are part of Coinbase’s mission to increase economic freedom and update the financial system by building trusted products that expand the utility and adoption of crypto globally.

Coinbase Obtained VASP Registration In The U.K.

Additionally, on February 3rd, Coinbase announced they have obtained VASP (virtual asset service provider) registration in the U.K. This registration is designed to ensure compliance with Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorist Financing (CFT) regulations, bringing crypto businesses in line with traditional financial institutions. 

VASP registration is a critical regulatory milestone for any crypto-related business seeking to operate legally and gain credibility in the market. As global regulators tighten oversight on digital assets, securing VASP registration ensures compliance, enhances security, and builds trust among users and institutional investors. Companies operating in the crypto space must proactively monitor regulatory updates and ensure their frameworks align with evolving compliance requirements.

By capitalizing on the current market dynamics and focusing on international growth, Coinbase is well-positioned to attract users transitioning from other platforms and strengthen its position in the global cryptocurrency market. This strategic expansion not only aims to increase Coinbase’s market share but also to further its mission of increasing economic freedom for individuals and businesses worldwide.

Financial Performance (Q3 2024)

Balance Sheet Highlights:

• Cash and Cash Equivalents: $7.7 billion, reflecting a YoY increase from $5.1 billion.
• Safeguarded Assets: $273 billion, more than doubling from $114 billion YoY.
• Crypto Investments: $1.26 billion, up from $456 million YoY.
• Net Assets: $8.7 billion, a substantial growth compared to $5.9 billion YoY.
• Long-Term Debt: $4.2 billion, reflecting strategic investments in growth initiatives.

Income Statement Highlights:

• Total Revenue: $1.2 billion, a significant jump from $674 million YoY.
• Operating Expenses: $1 billion, showcasing disciplined cost management despite rising revenue.
• Net Income: $75.2 million, marking a remarkable turnaround from the $2.3 million net loss in the prior year.

Other Key Points:

Coinbase achieved $185 billion in quarterly trading volume, underscoring its role as a central hub in the cryptocurrency market.

Coinbase’s Q3 earnings report highlights a significant concern: declining net margins. The company’s net margin plummeted from 50% in Q1 2024 to just 2% in Q2 2024, largely driven by extreme Bitcoin price volatility. During Q1, Bitcoin surged over 100%, fueling a 50% increase in Coinbase’s stock price and driving exceptional earnings, which in turn propelled the stock up another 74%. However, this momentum was short-lived—Bitcoin retraced over 25%, triggering a sharp decline in Coinbase’s stock price and a weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings report.

This trend underscores the strong correlation between Coinbase’s financial performance and Bitcoin’s price movements. When Bitcoin rallies, investor confidence in the crypto market strengthens, leading to higher trading volumes and revenue for Coinbase. Conversely, during downturns, risk-averse sentiment prevails, causing trading activity to decline and compressing Coinbase’s earnings and profitability. As a result, the company’s financial health remains heavily dependent on Bitcoin’s market trajectory, presenting both an opportunity and a risk for investors.

COIN Stock Forecast: Analyst’s Consensus:

The market analyst’s forecast COIN stock to be at an average $295.68, with a high of $400 and a low of $150. Analyst recommendations are primarily “Hold” with some “Buy” showing analyst’s conservative outlook on Coinbase.

2025 Outlook:

For 2025, I recommend a Buy rating for Coinbase. Based on its regulatory clarity, expanding institutional services, and growing mainstream adoption of digital assets, I am bullish on Coinbase. As a first-mover in the industry, Coinbase continues to benefit from its trusted reputation and commitment to innovation, particularly through its investments in staking, institutional solutions, and educational initiatives that enhance its long-term growth prospects.

As of February 11, 2025, Coinbase trades at $280, and I anticipate exceptional earnings this week, driven by Bitcoin’s 60% surge since its last earnings report. Historical trends suggest Coinbase’s earnings will follow Bitcoin’s trend, reinforcing the strong correlation between Coinbase’s financial performance and Bitcoin’s price action. As long as Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, Coinbase is positioned for continued short-term gains.

While I remain bullish on Coinbase in the short term, the company faces long-term challenges from smaller crypto exchanges capturing U.S. and global market share with broader token offerings and lower fees. To maintain its competitive edge, Coinbase must adapt its strategy, expand its global reach, and enhance its product offerings. If the company successfully addresses these competitive pressures, it is well-positioned to solidify its leadership in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape and drive sustainable growth in the years ahead.

It’s important to note that I Know First’s stock-picking AI shows a strong buy which reinforces my outlook on COIN. The light green indicates a mildly bullish short-term forecast, while the darker green signifies a strong bullish signal for the one-year projection.

Past Success with COIN Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on the COIN stock forecast in the past. On January 30th, 2024 the I Know First algorithm issued a forecast for COIN stock and recommended COIN as one of the best stocks to buy. The AI-driven COIN stock prediction was successful on a 1-year time frame, resulting in 126.85% increase.

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.