AMZN Stock Forecast: An Extensive Look at Amazon Stock Over the Years

Aiden ChalemThis AMZN Stock Forecast article was written by Aiden Chalem – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Highlights

  • Looking into AMZN’s stock profile, by still being a global leader in e-commerce and cloud computing, AMZN is showing a 12.54% YoY growth rate, and a reported FY2024Q1 revenue stood at $143.31 billion, with a growth rate of 12.53%.
  • Outlook for AMZN in the upcoming years, by looking into a consensus price range between $144.05 and $189.77 in 2024, we expected Amazon to have moderate growth.
  • Boosting Amazon’s AWS division operating margin with high profitability, which saw a 26.3% revenue increase to $12.06 billion.
(Source: commons.wikimedia.org)

Looking at Amazon’s (AMZN) stock valuation between the start of the pandemic in October 2019 and now in 2024, analysts and people have seen how Amazon experienced an exponential increase in stock value of around 111.1%. This analysis will dive deeper into Amazon, discussing its current market conditions and drawing conclusions on its outlook in the upcoming years.

(Source: seekingalpha.com)

Looking into the current fiscal year, Amazon (AMZN) has shown significant financial growth, still maintaining its position as a global leader in e-commerce and cloud computing. In the latest reports, Amazon reported a total revenue of $590.74 billion, showing a 12.54% year-over-year increase. Similarly, the FY2024Q1 revenue stood at $143.31 billion, with a growth rate of 12.53% compared to the previous year. The company’s departments’ revenue contributions are Online Stores at 47%, Amazon Web Services at 16%, Third-Party Seller Services at 23%, Subscription Services at 7%, Advertising Services at 8%, and physical stores at 6%.

Amazon’s earnings per share (EPS) for the trailing twelve months was $3.57, representing an approximately 750% increase from the previous year​​. This substantial growth in EPS reflects Amazon’s improved profitability, reversing the decline seen in 2022 when the EPS was negative at -$0.27—reporting FY24Q1 EPS to be 0.98, with a prediction that EPS and revenue in the upcoming year will also increase, from $1.01 per share in FY24Q2, to $1.13 in FY24Q3, and $1.33 in FY24Q4. By looking at the reports, Amazon always seems to beat the consensus estimates by a good margin of about 12.46%.

(Source: seekingalpha.com)

Amazon’s net income for the most recent fiscal year was $30.43 billion, significantly increasing from the previous year’s net income of $11.21 billion. This represents a year-over-year growth of approximately 171%. The impressive increase in net income, coupled with a net margin of 6.38%, underscores Amazon’s robust profitability despite substantial investments in infrastructure, technology, and market expansion.


Amazon’s market capitalization is approximately $1.92 trillion. As of the latest data, Amazon’s stock price is $178.34 per share, with 10.41 billion shares outstanding​. This reflects significant investor confidence in Amazon’s future growth prospects and its strategic positioning across multiple high-growth sectors. Additionally, Amazon maintains a healthy balance sheet with a current ratio of 1.07, indicating its ability to cover short-term liabilities with short-term assets. Its return on equity (ROE) is 19.86%, showcasing efficient use of shareholders’ equity to generate profits​.


In conclusion, Amazon’s robust financial performance, strategic investments, and innovative initiatives demonstrate its capacity to maintain and enhance its market leadership. These factors contribute to a positive outlook among investors regarding the future value of Amazon’s stock and the company’s sustained growth.

Outlook on Amazon Stock and Company Growth

Analysts agree that there should be a Buy recommendation on AMZN stock. Quants and Wall Street analysts all recommend strongly buying Amazon, giving it an A- in growth over the next few years. I would strongly recommend that investors buy the stock in the long run.

(Source seekingalpha.com)

For 2024, Amazon’s stock price is expected to exhibit moderate growth, reflecting both opportunities and market challenges. With a consensus price range between $144.05 and $189.77, these projections indicate potential fluctuations, with the average price target representing a slight decrease from current levels. However, the high estimate suggests the possibility of reaching near-all-time highs if Amazon successfully capitalizes on its growth initiatives.

(Source Stockscan.com)

Amazon’s profit margins have shown improvement, driven primarily by its high-margin segments like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and advertising. AWS significantly boosts Amazon’s operating margin with high profitability, contributing $5.4 billion in operating income and $23.1 billion in revenue in FY23Q3. The advertising segment, which saw a 26.3% revenue increase to $12.06 billion, also enhances overall profitability. Despite modest net margins historically, Amazon’s focused cost management, including logistics optimization and automation, has led to better operating margins​​.

This positive margin trend suggests that Amazon is well-positioned for future profitability, with continued growth in high-margin businesses and efficiency improvements expected to enhance its financial performance further​. The average target price for 2025 is $230.15, with a high estimate of $281.90 and a low estimate of $178.40. These projections reflect an anticipated rise of approximately 27.3% from current levels.

(Source Stockscan.com)

The overall consensus among analysts is giving AMZN a very positive linear path to growth. Amazon’s revenue has been on a steady upward trajectory, increasing from $280.52 billion in 2019 to an estimated $651.01 billion in 2024, with projections to reach $977.26 billion by 2028. This consistent revenue growth, averaging around 13.26% for 2024 and 11.04% for 2025, demonstrates Amazon’s robust business model and ability to expand across various segments, including retail, cloud computing, and new ventures like healthcare and grocery services. Additionally, the earnings per share (EPS) have shown substantial growth, projected to rise from $2.90 in 2023 to $11.05 by 2028, indicating strong profitability driven by high-margin segments.

(Source: stockanalysis.com)

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, expected to decrease from 39.49 in 2024 to 16.55 by 2028, suggests that Amazon’s stock might become more attractively valued over time as its earnings grow faster than its share price. This declining P/E ratio, with the steady EPS growth and increased number of analysts covering the stock, reflects strong investor confidence in Amazon’s long-term prospects. The projected EPS growth rates, up to 28.09% in 2026, highlight Amazon’s efficiency and profitability enhancements through cost management and expansion in high-margin areas.

AMZN Stock Forecast: Conclusion

Amazon’s expansion into high-growth sectors such as cloud computing, healthcare, and advertising is expected to drive substantial revenue growth. The company’s AWS division continues to be a major growth engine, with significant investments in new infrastructure regions and advancements in AI capabilities. These developments will boost AWS revenues and contribute to Amazon’s overall profitability.

For long-term investors, Amazon stock presents a very optimistic outlook. The company’s diversified business model, strong market position, and continuous innovation will likely yield steady returns over the coming years. Amazon has a solid bullish outlook, and its substantial investment in and plans to expand all areas of the company could provide significant gains when investing in this stock.

It is worth paying attention that the stock-picking AI of I Know First has a weak long signal on the one-year market trend forecasts, supporting my position for the AMZN stock forecast. The light red for the short-term forecasts is mildly bearish, while the light green is a weak bullish signal for the one-year forecast.

Past Success with AMZN Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on the AMZN stock forecast in the past. On June 19th, 2024 the I Know First algorithm issued a forecast for AMZN stock price and recommended AMZN as one of the best retail stocks to buy. The AI-driven AMZN stock prediction was successful on a 1-year time horizon, resulting in more than 45.68%.

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.