Amazon Stock Forecast: COVID-19 Showed How Strong Amazon Is

motek 1This Amazon stock forecast article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.


  • Like other stocks, AMZN was among the biggest dropper during the March Madness COVID-19 pandemic sell-off.
  • Amazon’s stock is also among those fastest to recover. From dipping below $1,700, this stock is trading above $1,900.
  • Now is the time to add more AMZN to your long-term portfolio. COVID-19 obviously steered new repeat customers to Amazon’s online marketplace.
  • Traditional retail stores were forcibly shutdown in many countries due to COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, online shopping portals are still allowed to operate.
  • The work-from-home initiatives of most companies right now is also boosting Amazon’s most profitable division, AWS.

I reiterate my February bet that Amazon’s (AMZN) stock can still hit $2,500 before 2020 ends. The COVID-19 pandemic showed us all how just how resilient and adaptable Amazon as a company. Going forward, Amazon will emerge a much stronger company after this global pandemic is over.

Please study the chart below. AMZN was also gravely punished during the March Madness pandemic sell-off. However, AMZN quickly recovered from below $1,700 to above $1,900. Many investors apparently realized that this pandemic is boosting Amazon’s online sales.

amazon stock forecast
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Many countries have forcibly shutdown factories, offices, and public transportation in their quarantine policies. The rapid rise of COVID-19 positive patients in America is obviously forcing many Americans and Canadians to shop online. No thanks to COVID-19, I expect a notable increase in Amazon Prime subscriptions this year. People made Amazon the no.1 consumer online retailer because this company touts its own fleet of planes, trucks, and ships. You can always depend on Amazon to have toilet paper and other essentials for sale. If it runs out of stock, Amazon will just send dozens of its airplanes to China to get fresh supply.

The low-margin e-commerce business of Amazon can only remain profitable through consistent growth in Amazon Prime membership. Amazon Prime ended 2019 with 112 million members in the U.S. No thanks to COVID-19, Amazon will most likely end 2020 with 120 to 125 million members.

amazon stock forecast
(Source: AMZN)

Consequently, the e-commerce business of Amazon will likely finish 2020 with revenue greater than $152 billion. Amazon’s online store finished 2019 with sales of $141.25 billion. Online sales is Amazon’s biggest sales generator and the COVID-19 pandemic is giving an unexpected strong boost.

amazon stock forecast
(Source: Statista)

Of course, forced stay-home policies of many countries will also boost the subscription services segment of Amazon. This pandemic is obviously inspiring more people to subscribe to Amazon’s paid video/music streaming services. I expect the Subscription services segment of Amazon to end 2020 with $21 billion in annual revenue. We should add more AMZN shares because of the unexpected tailwinds to the e-commerce and subscription entertainment services.

AWS Also Benefits From This Pandemic

The strongest reason why I’m endorsing AMZN as a strong buy right now is the obvious tailwind that AWS is getting from this global coronavirus pandemic. The work-from-home is the new normal for many companies. Forcing employees to work at their residences means companies can still continue their operations while cities and whole countries are in total lockdown. 

AWS is the number one cloud computing infrastructure service provider. It is therefore the biggest beneficiary from increased demand for cloud computing/hosting. Big and small companies and government agencies obviously needs to rent more AWS instances to accommodate thousands of their employees collaborating and videoconferencing online.

AWS’s 2019 revenue was only $35.03 billion but it is the most profitable segment of Amazon. A big boost to a company’s best profit-maker is compelling reason to go long on AMZN right now. The AWS success is thanks to the affordable/flexible prices. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) has tried their best but they still can’t catch up to AWS’s more than 30% market share in cloud computing. AWS is largely why AMZN trades at super high valuation ratios.

Going forward, we can expect AWS to wrap up 2020 with greater than $39 billion in revenue. 

amazon stock forecast

My fearless 5-year forecast is that AWS will continue to enjoy more than 30% market share cloud computing infrastructure services. AWS can afford to engage in a pricing war against its rivals. Amazon is now designing and building its own data center processors. It saves money from using its own custom processors for AWS instances. Lower overhead costs ensure AWS will remain very affordable even for small, budget-constraint companies.

The chart below clearly illustrates that using Amazon-made Graviton2 processors for their EC2 servers can lead to obvious savings for many companies.

amazon stock forecast
(Source: Amazon/AnandTech)

The energy efficiency of Amazon’s Graviton2 data center processor means it also lowers the electricity costs of AWS. These processors are likely used in AWS’s cheapest instances. Having the most budget-friendly cloud computing servers for rent made AWS no. 1. This will remain true for many years to come.


The e-commerce, paid subscription services, and AWS are all getting a tailwind from this unfortunate epidemic. Lives and livelihoods are being lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic but it is also raising the profile of the best companies to invest in right now. Amazon is a clear beneficiary but it is also doing great public service by making sure online shopping still works during pandemics.

AWS is also helping companies around the world still operate as usual even though most of their employees are now forced to work at home. A company that can serve the people like Amazon is a great stock to own. Add more AMZN and you will eventually be rewarded. As per the chart below, I Know First is very bullish on the potential one-year market trend of Amazon’s stock. One year from now, I Know First expects AMZN to trade notably higher than its current price of $1,906.59. It is rational to expect that AMZN will probably trade at $2,500 by April 2021.

amazon stock forecast

Past Success With Amazon Stock Forecast

I Know First stock algorithm has been bullish on AMZN’s shares in past stock market predictions. On October 23, 2019, the I Know First algorithm issued a bullish forecast for Amazon stock price. This quant trading tool successfully forecasted the movement of AMZN. Until today, Amazon stock price has risen by 6.73% in line with the I Know First algorithm’s forecast. See the chart below.

past amazon stock forecast
past amazon stock forecast

Here at I Know First, one of the top fintech companies in the industry, our algorithm has modeled and predicted assets price movement worldwide for short-term and long-term time horizons, ranging from 3 days to a year. Since 2011, we have been providing daily S&P 500 forecast, including forex predictionsgold price predictions, market indices predictions, and, in particular, Apple stock forecast. Additionally, we provide the latest Apple stock news, updates and the latest launches. Today, we are producing daily algorithmic trading forecasts for over 10,500 assets. Recently, the Corona stock market outbreak has caused significant impact onto the global economy, which is why I Know First launched a special package which includes Corona stock picks to identify the best investment opportunities in the market.

premium badge

To subscribe today click here.

Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.