Adobe Stock Price Forecast: It Is Time To Take Your Profits On Adobe

motek 1The Adobe stock price forecast article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • I suggested last June 14 that Adobe’s stock deserved a price target of $438. ADBE went as high as $470.61 over the last 30 days.
  • ADBE’s price has recently been on the down trend. It is now trading at below $445. It’s high time we take our profits.
  • Let us wait for ADBE to trade below $400 before we make another buy-in.
  • There’s still no finite vaccine timetable against COVID-19. The United States and India are seeing rapid rise in pandemic infections.
  • Investors are nervy. It is better to cash out our profits on high-flying stocks like ADBE, TSLA, and AMZN. The market is turning pessimistic again.

Adobe’s (ADBE) was trading below $405 when I made my June 14 buy recommendation. I also gave it a price target of $438. ADBE flew as high as $470.61 during the past 30 days. It has since retreated to below $445. The big -5% yesterday of ADBE’s price is a big warning that the stock market is again nervous over the persistent pandemic. I highly recommend that we should take our profits on Adobe immediately. Cash out our ADBE exposure. 

(Source: Seeking Alpha Premium)

The predictive, self-learning AI of I Know First still has a super-bullish one year forecast for Adobe’s stock. You can hold on to your ADBE position and wait for the long-term. You can also do a near-term tactic of selling above $440 and wait for ADBE to go below $400 within the next 60 days. My takeaway is that we should always try to exploit the majority emotion of the stock market players. If the pandemic is making them nervous, we should sell before the stampede to retreat starts getting momentum.

Why The Stock Market Will Go Bipolar Bad Mood State

The high-low rollercoaster emotion of most investors is because is still no real vaccine or cure against COVID-19.  The Director General of the World Health Organization has already admitted that global COVID-19 infection rate is accelerating. In spite of the quarantines and lockdowns, COVID-19 still persists as a global headwind for most stocks. Trump is now also wearing a face mask because the United States is suffering a rapid increase in COVID-19 infections. Trump is losing his bravado against this pandemic. The consensual emotion of NYSE and NASDAQ traders/investors is now trending to bipolar bad mood state.

A cowered Trump made a lot of investors very nervous yesterday. American investors are very anxious because there’s no flattening the curve in U.S. COVID-19. It is actually rising. The United States is still the no. 1 country with most COVID-19 victims and number of deaths. Going forward, the U.S. economy going to a short-term depression is becoming more realistic. State politicians will have to implement strict pandemic rules. They have no choice because treating COVID-19 victims is straining the health system of the U.S. It is also becoming more expensive to treat the increasing number of Americans getting COVID-19.

(Source: Google COVID-19 Tracker)

You should cash out your profits on ADBE as soon as possible. The obvious near-term headwind is that American firms closing shops or reducing business operations will adversely affect the advertising/marketing and document cloud management services of Adobe. It will also affect the biggest cash cow of Adobe, Creative Cloud. Many companies reeling from pandemic losses will unsubscribe (or will not renew) to their month-to-month or annual subscriptions to Creative Cloud. Yes, it is possible to cancel a one-year subscription to Adobe Creative Cloud that not yet run out. Adobe will just reimburse the remaining unconsumed months.

Adobe’s Long-Term Growth Story Is Still Intact

My sell recommendation for ADBE is for the near-term. I still believe in its long-term growth opportunity. I am highly confident that any official announcement of a true COVID-19 vaccine could boost ADBE’s price to above $500. If you are a long-term investor, please know that ADBE deserves a 1-year price target of $525. This long-term optimism is due to Adobe’s ongoing dominance in content creation software. Creative Cloud’s software suite is used in so many industries that profit-motivated companies will still try to operate in spite of the global pandemic.

The booming streaming entertainment and video games industries are heavily reliant on Creative Cloud software programs. I think these two industries are large enough to still help Adobe deliver a 20% year-over-year increase in FY 2020 annual revenue.

My fearless forecast is that ADBE can end 2020 with a closing price of $500. Adobe’s management only needs to deliver 18 to 20% Y-o-Y annual improvement to its revenue. ADBE’s high valuation right now is thanks to its 5-year revenue CAGR of 21.63%. Maintaining this CAGR this year during a global pandemic will definitely impress institutional investors and hedge fund managers.

(Source: Seeking Alpha Premium)

Conclusion

ADBE is a sell because of the emerging market negativity. Sell it before the stampede to retreat starts gathering momentum. Sell ADBE and watch others pummel it down to below $400. It may take days or weeks but my gut feeling is that depressing propaganda regarding COVID-19 will continue to propagate for the next few weeks. The COVID-19 situation in the United States is not going to improve within the next 60 days. This fact should convince you that investors are now trending to apprehensive mood. Take your ADBE profits now before a bearish market dispels it away.

Past I Know First Adobe Stock Price Forecast Success

I Know First was successful with Adobe stock price forecast. On July 7 2019, the I Know First algorithm issued a bullish 1-year Adobe stock price forecast and the algorithm successfully forecasted the movement of the ADBE stock.  After 1 year,ADBE shares rose by 47.83% in line with the I Know First algorithm’s forecast. See chart below.

Here at I Know First, our algorithmic trading AI have modeled and predicted assets price movement worldwide for short-term and long-term time horizons, ranging from 3 days to a year. We provide forecasts for institutional clients, as well as private investors to identify the best investment opportunities in the market, using both traditional brokers and Robinhood trading. For example we have daily stock market forecast, aggressive stocks, top tech stocks as well as forex forecast and Apple stock news. Today, we are producing forecasts for over 10,500 (and growing) assets, including commodity forecasts and gold outlook.

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