ADBE Stock Predictions: I Know First Stock Forecasts Evaluation Report

Adobe Stock Predictions Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of the stock market predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for ADBE stock with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from 1 January 2019 to 13 August 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our ADBE predictions in the stock market.


  • 86% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period for ADBE predictions allowing our clients to be able to invest their money with significant less risk
  • Predictions consistently hit above 52% accuracy despite volatile market conditions

Note that the above results were obtained as a result of an evaluation conducted over the specific time period to give a presentation for the ADBE movements. The following report provides an extensive explanation of our methodology and detailed analysis of the performance metrics that we obtained during the evaluation. This report is a new I Know First evaluation series illustrating the ability to provide successful forecasting on ADBE. 

About the I Know First Algorithm

stock market predictions

The I Know First self-learning algorithm analyses, models, and provides stock market predictions for the capital markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and interest rates. The algorithm is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) and incorporates elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.

The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with a wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap with the predicted trend. Consequently, the trader can decide which direction to trade, when to enter the trade, and when to exit the trade. The model is 100% empirical, based only on factual data, thereby avoiding any biases or emotions that may accompany human assumptions. I Know First’s model only involves the human factor in building the mathematical framework and providing the initial set of inputs and outputs to the system. The algorithm produces a forecast with a signal and a predictability indicator. The signal is the number in the middle of the box. The predictability is the number at the bottom of the box. At the top, a specific asset is identified. This format is consistent across all predictions.

stock market predictions
Example display of forecast

Our algorithm provides two independent indicators for the index – signal and predictability.

The signal is the predicted strength and direction of movement of the index. This is measured from –inf to +inf.

The predictability indicates our confidence in the signal. The predictability is a Pearson correlation coefficient relating to past algorithmic performance and actual market movement, measured from -1 to 1. You can find a detailed description of our heatmap here.

The Hit Ratio Calculation

The hit ratio helps us to identify the accuracy of our algorithm’s predictions.

We predict the direction of movement of ADBE using our algorithm. Our predictions are then compared against actual movements of ADBE within the same time horizon.

The hit ratio is then calculated as follows:  

Stock in Spotlight: ADBE Predictions

Adobe Inc. is an American multinational computer software company headquartered in San Jose, California. It has historically focused upon the creation of multimedia and creativity software products, with a more recent foray towards digital marketing software. Adobe is best known for its Adobe Flash web software ecosystem, Photoshop image editing software, Adobe Illustrator vector graphics editor, Acrobat Reader, the Portable Document Format (PDF), and Adobe Creative Suite, as well as its successor Adobe Creative Cloud. ADBE is listed on the NASDAQ.

Adobe Stock Price Movements

From 1 January 2019 to 13 August 2019, Adobe stock price has fluctuated. Despite a general uptrend over the past 8 months, there were times when the stock fell in price during the months of April to May. It is imperative for traders to spot such changes in prices to profit during volatile times in the stock market. 

Evaluating ADBE Stock Predictions Hit Ratio

ADBE Hit Ratio per time horizon

Through the results above, you can see that we at I Know First have developed an algorithm that can consistently predict ADBE stock movements throughout various time periods. On average through 2019, I Know First has achieved the incredible feat of hitting the ADBE’s exact movement 86% of the times for the 3-months prediction time horizon. This, in essence, means that the algorithm will be correct almost all the time on the 3-months time horizon allowing our clients to make the safest investments. Additionally, to that, we can also predict the 3-day time horizon, 7-day time horizon, 14-day time horizon and one-month time horizon at 52%, 58%, 68% and 78% accuracy respectively. This allows our investors to have a safer outlook when investing despite these quick and volatile time periods.


All in all, we at I Know First have a mission to provide our clients with the most robust and reliable stock market forecasts. By sharpening our ability to predict the price movement of ADBE using our artificial intelligence system, we provide our clients with increasing certainty that their investment will be safer and more profitable. Within the bounds of certainty, we have consistently been able to find that we can predict ADBE movements above 52% of the time over the last half year. The peak of that is 86% hit ratio over the 3-months time horizon. Our predictions for the ADBE stock price movement are correct almost all the time on average for long term investments.