Stock Forecast: Today’s Predictability (April 17 2012)
Today’s stocks and indices with the highest predictability (symbol/predictability):
- ^BKX 0.684
- FAS 0.672
- BAC 0.659
- ORBK 0.654
- STP 0.639
The predictability: The "strength" of the prediction is the Predictability P, which ranges between minus 1 to plus 1.
This metric is an adaptation of the Pearson correlation coefficient.
- P=-1 means the actual market movement was against the prediction.
- P=0 means no correlation between the prediction and the actual market movement.
- P=1 means perfect correlation between actual market movement and its predicted change. Any value of P above zero means positive predictability, the higher the better. . For stocks we monitor and predict the Predictability P ranges generally between P=0.2 and P=0.7.
