Stock Forecast: Today’s Predictability (April 12 2012)

Today’s stocks and indices with the highest predictability:

SymbolPredictability
^BKX0.684
ORBK0.66
BAC0.655
GE0.637
^RTS0.617
WAG0.617



The predictability: The "strength" of the prediction is the Predictability P, which ranges between minus 1 to plus 1. 

This metric is an adaptation of the Pearson correlation coefficient.

  • P=-1 means the actual market movement was against the prediction.
  • P=0 means no correlation between the prediction and the actual market movement.
  • P=1 means perfect correlation between actual market movement and its predicted change. Any value of P above zero means positive predictability, the higher the better. . For stocks we monitor and predict the Predictability P ranges generally between P=0.2 and P=0.7.

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