Commodities- The 7 days prediction on November 28 2010

 

The commodities market prediction summery from November 28 2010

The prediction  performence

 

Commodity markets have held up reasonably well despite this dollar strength showing only small losses across sectors. Natural gas has been the best performer as colder weather in the US have supported prices while cotton continues to suffer heavy losses after the vertical rally came to an abrupt halt two weeks ago.

The price of WTI Crude has been range bound this past week having found support towards the 80 dollar level despite the stronger dollar. The fundamental outlook has continued to improve, as the global supply glut has been reduced significantly and this point towards higher prices over the coming months. Hedge funds and money managers have shown their hand by continuing to add to existing record long speculative positions.

Cold weather across the northern hemisphere will keep prices supported. However until we have further clarification on the European debt situation and subsequent risk of a weaker euro and stronger dollar the upside seems limited. Further news on Chinese measures to curb rising inflation will also keep the market guessing. For now the market is confine to a range between 80 and 85 dollar.

Natural gas saw the first withdrawal from underground storage as the winter demand begins to reduce inventories. Forecast for seasonal colder weather over the coming period have supported prices over the past couple of weeks with natural gas for January delivery having rallied 17 percent during this period. Current inventory levels, which stands at 3,837 billion cubic feet, is still above the five year average so any change back towards the seasonal average could halt the recent rally.

Precious metals are caught between buyers who see it as a hedge against Korean tension and European sovereign debt problems while others has been selling it on the back of the continued dollar rally. The previous strong correlation between gold and dollar has evidently gone down recently highlighting gold and silvers ability to attract safe haven demand.

 

Cold weather across the northern hemisphere will keep prices supported. However until we have further clarification on the European debt situation and subsequent risk of a weaker euro and stronger dollar the upside seems limited. Further news on Chinese measures to curb rising inflation will also keep the market guessing. For now the market is confine to a range between 80 and 85 dollar.

Natural gas saw the first withdrawal from underground storage as the winter demand begins to reduce inventories. Forecast for seasonal colder weather over the coming period have supported prices over the past couple of weeks with natural gas for January delivery having rallied 17 percent during this period. Current inventory levels, which stands at 3,837 billion cubic feet, is still above the five year average so any change back towards the seasonal average could halt the recent rally.

Precious metals are caught between buyers who see it as a hedge against Korean tension and European sovereign debt problems while others has been selling it on the back of the continued dollar rally. The previous strong correlation between gold and dollar has evidently gone down recently highlighting gold and silvers ability to attract safe haven demand.

 

 

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