Stock Forecast: Today’s Predictability (April 16 2012)

Today’s stocks and indices with the highest predictability (symbol/predictability):

  • ^BKX 0.678
  • BAC 0.655
  • ORBK 0.654
  • STP 0.642
  • GE 0.636

The predictability: The "strength" of the prediction is the Predictability P, which ranges between minus 1 to plus 1. 

This metric is an adaptation of the Pearson correlation coefficient.

  • P=-1 means the actual market movement was against the prediction.
  • P=0 means no correlation between the prediction and the actual market movement.
  • P=1 means perfect correlation between actual market movement and its predicted change. Any value of P above zero means positive predictability, the higher the better. . For stocks we monitor and predict the Predictability P ranges generally between P=0.2 and P=0.7.

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